OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.

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Table
 

Table 3.A1.1 – World cereal projections You or your institution have access to this content

OECD
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016

‌3.A1.1World cereal projections
3.A1.1World cereal projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2013-15est
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
WHEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
720.3
 
721.7
 
733.2
 
739.8
 
747.3
 
753.9
 
760.1
 
767.7
 
775.6
 
783.6
 
791.3
 
Area
Mha
222.2
 
222.6
 
222.8
 
223.3
 
223.6
 
223.7
 
223.6
 
223.6
 
223.9
 
224.1
 
224.4
 
Yield
t/ha
3.24
 
3.24
 
3.29
 
3.31
 
3.34
 
3.37
 
3.40
 
3.43
 
3.46
 
3.50
 
3.53
 
Consumption
Mt
709.9
 
727.7
 
733.4
 
740.4
 
746.7
 
752.2
 
759.9
 
766.5
 
773.7
 
781.4
 
789.6
 
Feed use
Mt
133.4
 
140.6
 
141.1
 
143.1
 
146.1
 
148.3
 
150.5
 
152.7
 
155.1
 
157.9
 
161.3
 
Food use
Mt
487.7
 
497.2
 
503.5
 
508.6
 
513.4
 
518.1
 
523.3
 
528.2
 
532.8
 
537.9
 
543.8
 
Biofuel use
Mt
8.8
 
9.4
 
9.8
 
10.4
 
10.4
 
10.1
 
9.9
 
9.5
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.3
 
Other use
Mt
80.0
 
80.5
 
79.1
 
78.3
 
76.8
 
75.7
 
76.2
 
76.2
 
76.7
 
76.4
 
75.3
 
Exports
Mt
157.8
 
152.5
 
155.0
 
158.3
 
161.2
 
163.3
 
165.6
 
167.8
 
170.0
 
172.4
 
174.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
196.2
 
196.6
 
196.4
 
195.8
 
196.4
 
198.1
 
198.3
 
199.5
 
201.4
 
203.5
 
205.3
 
Price 1
USD/t
271.0
 
216.5
 
211.7
 
210.8
 
213.1
 
216.6
 
224.0
 
229.0
 
233.2
 
235.5
 
236.9
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
381.5
 
374.0
 
379.9
 
383.2
 
386.7
 
388.9
 
391.1
 
394.0
 
397.2
 
400.5
 
403.3
 
Consumption
Mt
266.9
 
270.6
 
271.5
 
273.4
 
273.0
 
272.9
 
274.2
 
275.0
 
276.5
 
278.1
 
279.5
 
Net trade
Mt
109.1
 
106.3
 
108.4
 
111.2
 
113.5
 
115.0
 
116.6
 
118.3
 
119.8
 
121.5
 
122.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
69.5
 
73.8
 
73.8
 
72.4
 
72.6
 
73.6
 
73.9
 
74.6
 
75.6
 
76.5
 
77.5
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
338.8
 
347.7
 
353.3
 
356.5
 
360.6
 
365.0
 
369.1
 
373.7
 
378.4
 
383.1
 
388.0
 
Consumption
Mt
443.0
 
457.1
 
461.9
 
467.0
 
473.7
 
479.3
 
485.7
 
491.5
 
497.2
 
503.3
 
510.1
 
Net trade
Mt
-106.9
 
-106.3
 
-108.4
 
-111.2
 
-113.5
 
-115.0
 
-116.6
 
-118.3
 
-119.8
 
-121.5
 
-122.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
126.7
 
122.9
 
122.6
 
123.3
 
123.8
 
124.5
 
124.4
 
124.8
 
125.8
 
127.0
 
127.7
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
291.8
 
290.9
 
291.3
 
293.6
 
295.9
 
297.1
 
298.6
 
300.6
 
302.8
 
305.0
 
306.6
 
Consumption
Mt
219.2
 
222.9
 
223.9
 
225.4
 
225.0
 
224.9
 
225.8
 
226.4
 
227.8
 
228.9
 
229.8
 
Net trade
Mt
68.7
 
67.9
 
69.7
 
69.7
 
71.0
 
71.4
 
72.5
 
73.5
 
74.3
 
75.3
 
76.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
51.9
 
57.0
 
54.7
 
53.2
 
53.2
 
54.0
 
54.3
 
54.9
 
55.7
 
56.5
 
57.3
 
MAIZE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 014.3
 
1 006.0
 
1 041.3
 
1 048.5
 
1 059.8
 
1 075.1
 
1 090.0
 
1 103.4
 
1 117.1
 
1 132.3
 
1 146.0
 
Area
Mha
181.1
 
178.9
 
182.7
 
182.3
 
182.4
 
183.0
 
183.5
 
183.8
 
184.1
 
184.6
 
184.8
 
Yield
t/ha
5.60
 
5.62
 
5.70
 
5.75
 
5.81
 
5.88
 
5.94
 
6.00
 
6.07
 
6.13
 
6.20
 
Consumption
Mt
986.7
 
1 024.9
 
1 038.6
 
1 060.1
 
1 062.8
 
1 073.7
 
1 087.2
 
1 102.6
 
1 114.7
 
1 130.6
 
1 143.4
 
Feed use
Mt
555.9
 
583.9
 
599.2
 
614.8
 
616.1
 
622.1
 
635.8
 
649.2
 
660.3
 
671.7
 
682.9
 
Food use
Mt
130.9
 
136.3
 
138.3
 
140.8
 
143.2
 
145.8
 
148.4
 
150.9
 
153.6
 
156.2
 
158.9
 
Biofuel use
Mt
148.0
 
156.9
 
161.4
 
160.9
 
159.6
 
159.4
 
157.1
 
156.3
 
155.2
 
156.6
 
154.4
 
Other use
Mt
102.0
 
101.4
 
93.3
 
96.0
 
95.4
 
97.2
 
96.7
 
96.1
 
95.4
 
95.4
 
95.8
 
Exports
Mt
130.2
 
128.6
 
127.9
 
129.1
 
130.2
 
131.0
 
133.1
 
134.7
 
137.4
 
139.8
 
141.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
216.2
 
204.2
 
206.9
 
195.2
 
192.2
 
193.6
 
196.4
 
197.2
 
199.6
 
201.3
 
203.9
 
Price 3
USD/t
180.6
 
170.2
 
163.0
 
163.0
 
165.9
 
170.0
 
175.9
 
181.2
 
182.2
 
183.9
 
186.7
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
498.0
 
488.6
 
506.4
 
507.9
 
511.3
 
516.1
 
521.3
 
525.5
 
530.2
 
536.0
 
541.5
 
Consumption
Mt
444.2
 
453.9
 
461.7
 
474.2
 
468.6
 
470.8
 
474.5
 
480.6
 
483.2
 
489.2
 
492.2
 
Net trade
Mt
45.0
 
37.6
 
38.9
 
40.4
 
41.3
 
41.3
 
42.7
 
44.3
 
46.3
 
47.6
 
49.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
66.3
 
64.0
 
69.9
 
63.1
 
64.5
 
68.6
 
72.7
 
73.4
 
74.1
 
73.3
 
73.4
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
516.3
 
517.4
 
534.9
 
540.5
 
548.5
 
559.0
 
568.8
 
577.8
 
586.9
 
596.3
 
604.5
 
Consumption
Mt
542.5
 
571.1
 
576.9
 
585.9
 
594.2
 
603.0
 
612.7
 
622.0
 
631.6
 
641.4
 
651.2
 
Net trade
Mt
-37.9
 
-37.6
 
-38.9
 
-40.4
 
-41.3
 
-41.3
 
-42.7
 
-44.3
 
-46.3
 
-47.6
 
-49.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
149.9
 
140.2
 
137.0
 
132.1
 
127.7
 
125.0
 
123.7
 
123.8
 
125.5
 
128.0
 
130.6
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
466.2
 
463.1
 
474.9
 
475.6
 
478.4
 
482.6
 
487.2
 
490.8
 
494.8
 
499.9
 
504.8
 
Consumption
Mt
459.7
 
471.9
 
479.2
 
491.8
 
486.0
 
488.0
 
491.8
 
497.8
 
500.4
 
506.4
 
509.2
 
Net trade
Mt
-2.7
 
-5.3
 
-9.2
 
-9.2
 
-8.9
 
-9.7
 
-8.8
 
-7.7
 
-6.2
 
-5.5
 
-4.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
65.6
 
63.7
 
68.6
 
61.6
 
63.0
 
67.2
 
71.4
 
72.0
 
72.7
 
71.7
 
71.7
 
OTHER COARSE GRAINS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
298.9
 
294.1
 
295.2
 
296.9
 
300.3
 
304.2
 
307.8
 
312.0
 
316.1
 
320.0
 
324.2
 
Area
Mha
158.2
 
157.4
 
156.9
 
156.7
 
157.1
 
157.7
 
158.0
 
158.6
 
159.2
 
159.6
 
160.2
 
Yield
t/ha
1.89
 
1.87
 
1.88
 
1.89
 
1.91
 
1.93
 
1.95
 
1.97
 
1.99
 
2.01
 
2.02
 
Consumption
Mt
290.5
 
291.2
 
294.0
 
296.8
 
299.9
 
303.0
 
306.6
 
310.1
 
313.9
 
317.7
 
321.6
 
Feed use
Mt
163.5
 
160.1
 
161.0
 
162.3
 
164.7
 
167.5
 
169.7
 
171.9
 
173.9
 
175.9
 
177.9
 
Food use
Mt
74.5
 
77.4
 
78.4
 
79.8
 
81.2
 
82.7
 
84.1
 
85.7
 
87.2
 
88.8
 
90.5
 
Biofuel use
Mt
3.9
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
3.8
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
Other use
Mt
48.6
 
49.6
 
50.4
 
50.3
 
49.7
 
48.7
 
49.0
 
49.0
 
49.3
 
49.5
 
49.9
 
Exports
Mt
45.5
 
40.2
 
40.4
 
40.7
 
41.4
 
42.6
 
43.6
 
45.1
 
46.6
 
48.1
 
49.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
55.3
 
59.0
 
58.4
 
56.7
 
55.2
 
54.5
 
53.7
 
53.7
 
54.1
 
54.6
 
55.3
 
Price 4
USD/t
212.4
 
156.4
 
153.9
 
157.1
 
161.4
 
166.0
 
175.3
 
181.0
 
184.5
 
188.4
 
190.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
185.8
 
177.5
 
177.3
 
176.6
 
177.4
 
178.6
 
179.7
 
181.0
 
182.3
 
183.5
 
184.9
 
Consumption
Mt
150.7
 
151.9
 
152.6
 
152.7
 
152.5
 
152.5
 
152.8
 
152.7
 
152.9
 
153.0
 
153.1
 
Net trade
Mt
31.3
 
24.8
 
24.9
 
25.2
 
26.2
 
27.1
 
27.8
 
28.7
 
29.6
 
30.5
 
31.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
35.4
 
39.4
 
39.2
 
37.9
 
36.6
 
35.6
 
34.8
 
34.3
 
34.2
 
34.2
 
34.3
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
113.1
 
116.6
 
118.0
 
120.3
 
122.8
 
125.5
 
128.1
 
131.0
 
133.8
 
136.5
 
139.4
 
Consumption
Mt
139.8
 
139.3
 
141.5
 
144.0
 
147.3
 
150.6
 
153.9
 
157.4
 
161.0
 
164.7
 
168.6
 
Net trade
Mt
-26.7
 
-23.0
 
-23.1
 
-23.3
 
-24.4
 
-25.3
 
-25.9
 
-26.8
 
-27.7
 
-28.7
 
-29.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
19.9
 
19.6
 
19.2
 
18.8
 
18.6
 
18.8
 
19.0
 
19.4
 
20.0
 
20.4
 
21.0
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
155.4
 
148.4
 
147.9
 
147.3
 
148.0
 
149.1
 
150.0
 
151.2
 
152.4
 
153.4
 
154.6
 
Consumption
Mt
130.6
 
131.1
 
131.7
 
131.9
 
131.8
 
131.8
 
132.1
 
132.1
 
132.2
 
132.2
 
132.1
 
Net trade
Mt
21.5
 
17.0
 
16.6
 
16.6
 
17.4
 
18.2
 
18.7
 
19.6
 
20.4
 
21.3
 
22.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
28.9
 
32.8
 
32.4
 
31.2
 
30.1
 
29.2
 
28.4
 
28.0
 
27.7
 
27.7
 
27.7
 
RICE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
493.4
 
503.6
 
510.5
 
517.7
 
524.7
 
531.0
 
537.0
 
543.4
 
549.7
 
556.3
 
562.6
 
Area
Mha
162.3
 
160.2
 
160.3
 
160.6
 
160.8
 
161.0
 
161.0
 
161.2
 
161.3
 
161.4
 
161.5
 
Yield
t/ha
3.04
 
3.14
 
3.18
 
3.22
 
3.26
 
3.30
 
3.34
 
3.37
 
3.41
 
3.45
 
3.48
 
Consumption
Mt
490.8
 
510.3
 
512.1
 
519.0
 
525.8
 
532.3
 
538.7
 
544.8
 
550.5
 
556.7
 
563.2
 
Feed use
Mt
20.9
 
22.6
 
22.5
 
22.6
 
22.7
 
22.9
 
23.1
 
23.2
 
23.4
 
23.5
 
23.5
 
Food use
Mt
397.9
 
408.8
 
413.9
 
419.6
 
424.9
 
430.2
 
435.1
 
439.8
 
444.1
 
448.7
 
453.6
 
Exports
Mt
44.3
 
42.7
 
43.7
 
44.8
 
46.2
 
47.1
 
48.0
 
48.7
 
49.6
 
50.6
 
51.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
169.7
 
159.1
 
157.5
 
156.1
 
155.1
 
153.7
 
152.0
 
150.6
 
149.9
 
149.4
 
148.9
 
Price 5
USD/t
454.7
 
399.6
 
407.6
 
409.2
 
405.8
 
407.0
 
409.7
 
413.4
 
415.5
 
415.4
 
416.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
17.9
 
18.0
 
18.2
 
18.4
 
18.5
 
18.6
 
18.7
 
18.8
 
18.9
 
19.0
 
19.1
 
Consumption
Mt
18.9
 
18.8
 
18.8
 
18.9
 
19.0
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.2
 
19.3
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.0
 
-0.5
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
5.3
 
4.8
 
4.6
 
4.5
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.8
 
5.1
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
475.4
 
485.6
 
492.2
 
499.3
 
506.2
 
512.4
 
518.3
 
524.6
 
530.9
 
537.2
 
543.5
 
Consumption
Mt
471.9
 
491.4
 
493.3
 
500.1
 
506.8
 
513.3
 
519.5
 
525.5
 
531.3
 
537.3
 
543.8
 
Net trade
Mt
1.8
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
164.4
 
154.3
 
152.8
 
151.6
 
150.7
 
149.3
 
147.6
 
146.1
 
145.2
 
144.6
 
143.7
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
21.6
 
21.4
 
21.6
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.8
 
21.9
 
21.9
 
22.0
 
22.0
 
22.1
 
Consumption
Mt
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.8
 
22.8
 
22.8
 
22.8
 
22.8
 
22.8
 
22.9
 
22.8
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.3
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
6.7
 
6.5
 
6.2
 
6.1
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
6.0
 
6.1
 
6.4
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May), less EEP payments where applicable.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August).
4.
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen.
5.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December).
Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

 
 
Visit the OECD web site