OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015
This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.
The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.
From Chapter:
Commodity snapshots
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015
| 3.A1.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| 3.A1.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2012-14est | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| | OILSEED (marketing year) | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 425.2 | 451.4 | 455.6 | 463.4 | 468.7 | 479.6 | 486.8 | 494.3 | 501.8 | 508.3 | 516.4 |
| | Area | Mha | 196.0 | 201.8 | 201.8 | 203.1 | 203.4 | 205.8 | 207.0 | 208.3 | 209.4 | 210.2 | 211.4 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 2.17 | 2.24 | 2.26 | 2.28 | 2.30 | 2.33 | 2.35 | 2.37 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.44 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 428.4 | 450.7 | 459.4 | 466.4 | 470.8 | 478.9 | 486.3 | 494.1 | 501.3 | 508.3 | 515.7 |
| | Crush | Mt | 368.3 | 389.7 | 397.7 | 404.8 | 408.9 | 416.4 | 422.9 | 430.2 | 437.0 | 443.5 | 450.6 |
| | Exports | Mt | 120.7 | 138.3 | 142.0 | 144.1 | 145.8 | 147.6 | 150.2 | 152.0 | 154.2 | 155.8 | 157.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 41.0 | 50.7 | 46.9 | 43.9 | 41.9 | 42.6 | 43.1 | 43.3 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 44.4 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 511.2 | 403.0 | 396.9 | 403.9 | 434.3 | 433.9 | 435.2 | 444.7 | 446.7 | 456.7 | 459.6 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 186.8 | 201.4 | 198.7 | 200.0 | 201.3 | 204.8 | 207.2 | 210.0 | 212.2 | 214.3 | 216.7 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 149.0 | 155.7 | 156.9 | 158.2 | 158.1 | 160.0 | 161.4 | 163.3 | 164.8 | 166.1 | 167.5 |
| | Crush | Mt | 134.7 | 140.7 | 142.0 | 143.3 | 143.3 | 145.2 | 146.5 | 148.3 | 149.7 | 151.0 | 152.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 15.6 | 22.7 | 20.3 | 17.2 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.7 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 238.4 | 250.0 | 256.9 | 263.4 | 267.4 | 274.8 | 279.6 | 284.3 | 289.6 | 294.0 | 299.7 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 279.5 | 295.0 | 302.5 | 308.2 | 312.7 | 318.9 | 324.9 | 330.8 | 336.5 | 342.1 | 348.2 |
| | Crush | Mt | 233.6 | 248.9 | 255.7 | 261.5 | 265.7 | 271.2 | 276.4 | 281.9 | 287.3 | 292.5 | 298.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 25.5 | 28.0 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.3 | 26.8 | 27.1 | 27.1 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 27.8 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 156.9 | 169.1 | 165.6 | 166.6 | 167.5 | 170.2 | 172.3 | 174.7 | 176.4 | 178.2 | 180.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 131.3 | 136.6 | 137.4 | 138.6 | 138.5 | 140.0 | 141.2 | 142.9 | 144.2 | 145.3 | 146.4 |
| | Crush | Mt | 118.2 | 123.1 | 124.0 | 125.2 | 125.2 | 126.8 | 127.9 | 129.4 | 130.7 | 131.8 | 132.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 14.1 | 21.4 | 18.9 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.2 |
| | PROTEIN MEALS (marketing year) | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 289.2 | 305.9 | 312.1 | 317.7 | 321.2 | 327.0 | 332.3 | 338.2 | 343.8 | 349.1 | 354.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 287.1 | 306.0 | 312.3 | 317.6 | 321.3 | 326.8 | 332.1 | 338.2 | 343.5 | 349.0 | 354.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 17.0 | 17.3 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.0 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 17.9 | 18.0 | 18.3 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 453.1 | 354.1 | 356.4 | 354.4 | 375.0 | 378.4 | 379.8 | 396.2 | 398.0 | 408.7 | 411.1 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 93.7 | 98.0 | 98.9 | 99.7 | 99.6 | 100.8 | 101.8 | 103.2 | 104.2 | 105.3 | 106.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 109.5 | 114.7 | 115.2 | 115.9 | 114.7 | 115.1 | 115.2 | 116.3 | 116.7 | 117.2 | 117.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 195.4 | 207.9 | 213.3 | 218.0 | 221.5 | 226.2 | 230.5 | 235.1 | 239.5 | 243.9 | 248.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 177.6 | 191.2 | 197.0 | 201.7 | 206.6 | 211.7 | 216.9 | 221.9 | 226.8 | 231.8 | 236.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 15.4 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.3 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 87.2 | 90.4 | 91.3 | 92.0 | 91.9 | 92.9 | 93.8 | 95.0 | 96.0 | 96.9 | 97.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 114.5 | 119.6 | 120.2 | 120.8 | 119.8 | 120.2 | 120.4 | 121.5 | 122.0 | 122.6 | 123.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| | VEGETABLE OILS (marketing year) | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 169.4 | 179.1 | 183.1 | 186.9 | 190.0 | 193.8 | 197.3 | 200.9 | 204.2 | 207.3 | 210.5 |
| | Of which palm oil | Mt | 58.4 | 62.7 | 64.7 | 66.5 | 68.3 | 69.9 | 71.5 | 73.0 | 74.3 | 75.6 | 76.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 167.5 | 178.8 | 183.1 | 186.7 | 190.0 | 193.5 | 197.2 | 200.7 | 204.0 | 207.2 | 210.4 |
| | Food | Mt | 136.7 | 143.6 | 146.7 | 149.5 | 151.9 | 154.5 | 157.3 | 160.4 | 163.2 | 165.9 | 168.6 |
| | Biofuel | Mt | 20.4 | 23.3 | 24.3 | 24.9 | 25.7 | 26.4 | 27.0 | 27.2 | 27.6 | 27.8 | 28.2 |
| | Exports | Mt | 69.9 | 70.3 | 71.7 | 73.2 | 74.4 | 75.6 | 76.9 | 78.3 | 79.4 | 80.7 | 81.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 23.1 | 23.8 | 23.9 | 24.1 | 24.0 | 24.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 | 24.9 | 25.1 | 25.2 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 902.6 | 698.1 | 726.9 | 725.9 | 754.0 | 773.3 | 784.5 | 796.0 | 809.3 | 822.9 | 839.4 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 43.0 | 44.3 | 44.5 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 45.5 | 45.9 | 46.3 | 46.8 | 47.1 | 47.4 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 48.8 | 49.9 | 50.0 | 50.2 | 50.5 | 50.6 | 50.8 | 50.7 | 50.6 | 50.5 | 50.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 126.4 | 134.8 | 138.6 | 142.0 | 145.0 | 148.4 | 151.5 | 154.5 | 157.4 | 160.2 | 163.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 118.7 | 128.9 | 133.1 | 136.5 | 139.5 | 142.9 | 146.3 | 149.9 | 153.4 | 156.7 | 160.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 19.8 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 21.2 | 21.4 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 36.0 | 36.9 | 37.1 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.9 | 38.2 | 38.7 | 39.0 | 39.3 | 39.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 48.0 | 49.1 | 49.2 | 49.4 | 49.6 | 49.7 | 49.9 | 49.8 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 49.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Note: Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
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Weighted average oilseed price, European port. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Weighted average protein meal, European port. | |||||||||||||
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port. | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||