OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015
This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.
The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.
From Chapter:
Commodity snapshots
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015
| 3.A1.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
| 3.A1.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2012-14est | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| | WHEAT | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 700.4 | 723.8 | 723.8 | 731.6 | 740.3 | 745.9 | 756.4 | 763.2 | 771.6 | 779.2 | 786.7 |
| | Area | Mha | 221.6 | 224.6 | 222.8 | 223.5 | 224.2 | 223.9 | 224.7 | 225.0 | 225.4 | 225.8 | 226.1 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.16 | 3.22 | 3.25 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.33 | 3.37 | 3.39 | 3.42 | 3.45 | 3.48 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 694.4 | 711.1 | 720.9 | 727.1 | 737.4 | 744.1 | 752.7 | 760.2 | 768.4 | 776.9 | 784.3 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 125.7 | 129.3 | 132.5 | 133.6 | 137.1 | 138.0 | 140.4 | 141.9 | 144.0 | 147.0 | 148.9 |
| | Food use | Mt | 480.9 | 489.2 | 495.1 | 500.1 | 505.8 | 510.7 | 515.5 | 519.7 | 525.1 | 530.6 | 535.7 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 6.6 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| | Other use | Mt | 81.2 | 85.7 | 85.9 | 85.3 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 88.6 | 90.5 | 91.5 | 91.8 | 92.2 |
| | Exports | Mt | 147.7 | 150.9 | 150.3 | 153.3 | 156.0 | 157.6 | 159.6 | 160.9 | 162.2 | 163.2 | 164.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 180.6 | 211.4 | 214.2 | 218.7 | 221.7 | 223.4 | 227.1 | 230.2 | 233.3 | 235.6 | 238.0 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 302.0 | 246.6 | 249.0 | 248.2 | 249.5 | 256.7 | 258.5 | 262.2 | 266.3 | 270.2 | 271.8 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 362.4 | 368.5 | 367.2 | 370.2 | 375.7 | 376.9 | 382.7 | 385.0 | 388.9 | 392.4 | 395.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 265.2 | 267.9 | 270.8 | 269.9 | 273.1 | 274.2 | 276.7 | 278.3 | 280.5 | 282.5 | 283.9 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 99.2 | 97.9 | 96.4 | 97.9 | 100.0 | 101.6 | 103.9 | 105.2 | 106.9 | 108.6 | 110.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 67.2 | 77.3 | 77.3 | 79.8 | 82.3 | 83.5 | 85.6 | 87.1 | 88.6 | 89.8 | 90.9 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 338.0 | 355.3 | 356.6 | 361.4 | 364.6 | 369.0 | 373.7 | 378.2 | 382.7 | 386.8 | 391.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 429.3 | 443.2 | 450.1 | 457.2 | 464.2 | 470.0 | 476.0 | 481.9 | 487.9 | 494.4 | 500.4 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -97.1 | -97.9 | -96.4 | -97.9 | -100.0 | -101.6 | -103.9 | -105.2 | -106.9 | -108.6 | -110.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 113.4 | 134.0 | 136.9 | 139.0 | 139.4 | 140.0 | 141.6 | 143.1 | 144.7 | 145.8 | 147.1 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 285.7 | 288.0 | 284.8 | 285.5 | 288.9 | 289.0 | 293.6 | 294.7 | 297.4 | 299.9 | 302.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 219.2 | 220.9 | 222.6 | 220.7 | 222.5 | 222.7 | 224.4 | 225.2 | 226.8 | 228.3 | 229.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 65.4 | 65.4 | 62.3 | 62.9 | 64.1 | 65.1 | 67.3 | 68.3 | 69.5 | 70.6 | 72.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 49.0 | 56.1 | 56.0 | 57.9 | 60.2 | 61.3 | 63.2 | 64.4 | 65.6 | 66.6 | 67.4 |
| | COARSE GRAINS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 1 255.3 | 1 276.2 | 1 297.2 | 1 323.9 | 1 345.3 | 1 365.6 | 1 381.5 | 1 396.4 | 1 414.7 | 1 431.0 | 1 449.4 |
| | Area | Mha | 336.8 | 341.7 | 344.4 | 346.6 | 348.9 | 350.4 | 351.1 | 351.6 | 352.3 | 353.0 | 353.7 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.77 | 3.82 | 3.86 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 3.97 | 4.02 | 4.05 | 4.10 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 1 215.0 | 1 280.0 | 1 296.5 | 1 312.2 | 1 334.6 | 1 353.6 | 1 371.1 | 1 391.0 | 1 408.0 | 1 424.7 | 1 440.1 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 694.7 | 736.3 | 747.9 | 760.5 | 775.3 | 788.1 | 800.3 | 813.9 | 826.0 | 839.1 | 850.7 |
| | Food use | Mt | 200.2 | 205.5 | 209.5 | 212.9 | 216.4 | 220.3 | 224.0 | 227.7 | 231.7 | 235.7 | 239.5 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 143.9 | 150.9 | 150.7 | 150.6 | 153.8 | 155.0 | 153.8 | 154.1 | 153.8 | 153.0 | 152.1 |
| | Other use | Mt | 130.9 | 140.6 | 141.1 | 139.3 | 139.5 | 139.7 | 141.5 | 143.0 | 143.6 | 143.4 | 143.8 |
| | Exports | Mt | 159.4 | 155.4 | 158.7 | 161.9 | 164.7 | 167.6 | 171.0 | 174.2 | 178.0 | 181.3 | 185.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 220.4 | 251.1 | 245.9 | 251.7 | 256.5 | 262.5 | 267.1 | 266.6 | 267.5 | 267.9 | 271.2 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 227.4 | 169.9 | 171.5 | 182.1 | 186.0 | 188.2 | 188.0 | 190.0 | 191.9 | 193.4 | 193.7 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 645.8 | 664.8 | 675.0 | 687.4 | 697.2 | 703.9 | 708.2 | 711.5 | 717.4 | 723.0 | 729.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 580.9 | 605.9 | 608.7 | 612.4 | 620.8 | 626.9 | 629.7 | 635.6 | 639.3 | 642.9 | 646.0 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 54.8 | 67.1 | 69.7 | 70.5 | 71.6 | 72.7 | 74.9 | 76.2 | 78.0 | 79.7 | 82.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 81.3 | 97.0 | 93.6 | 98.0 | 102.8 | 107.1 | 110.7 | 110.3 | 110.4 | 110.7 | 112.4 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 609.5 | 611.4 | 622.2 | 636.5 | 648.0 | 661.8 | 673.4 | 685.0 | 697.3 | 708.0 | 719.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 634.1 | 674.2 | 687.8 | 699.7 | 713.8 | 726.8 | 741.4 | 755.4 | 768.7 | 781.7 | 794.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -39.5 | -59.4 | -61.4 | -61.9 | -63.1 | -64.0 | -65.9 | -66.8 | -68.3 | -69.7 | -71.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 139.0 | 154.1 | 152.3 | 153.7 | 153.7 | 155.4 | 156.5 | 156.3 | 157.1 | 157.2 | 158.8 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 585.3 | 600.4 | 608.5 | 618.7 | 626.6 | 632.1 | 635.4 | 637.8 | 642.9 | 647.5 | 653.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 571.8 | 595.7 | 598.6 | 601.4 | 609.1 | 615.0 | 618.2 | 624.1 | 627.8 | 631.6 | 635.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 3.5 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 16.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 76.6 | 90.7 | 87.3 | 91.7 | 96.5 | 100.8 | 104.2 | 103.8 | 103.9 | 104.0 | 105.7 |
| | RICE | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 494.0 | 506.3 | 509.2 | 516.3 | 523.3 | 530.3 | 538.2 | 545.8 | 552.2 | 558.0 | 564.1 |
| | Area | Mha | 162.3 | 161.4 | 160.3 | 160.3 | 160.0 | 160.1 | 160.3 | 160.3 | 160.3 | 160.5 | 160.9 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.04 | 3.14 | 3.18 | 3.22 | 3.27 | 3.31 | 3.36 | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.48 | 3.51 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 488.8 | 505.6 | 511.3 | 518.7 | 524.3 | 529.6 | 536.2 | 543.4 | 549.6 | 555.5 | 561.9 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 17.6 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 19.8 | 20.4 | 20.7 | 21.1 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 23.1 |
| | Food use | Mt | 409.5 | 420.3 | 424.7 | 431.4 | 436.3 | 441.1 | 446.7 | 452.7 | 457.9 | 462.6 | 467.5 |
| | Exports | Mt | 40.1 | 42.8 | 42.5 | 43.5 | 44.4 | 45.5 | 46.7 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 51.0 | 52.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 178.2 | 177.7 | 175.6 | 173.2 | 172.1 | 172.8 | 174.8 | 177.2 | 179.8 | 182.3 | 184.5 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 518.9 | 369.8 | 374.9 | 384.8 | 399.4 | 411.9 | 416.0 | 430.3 | 438.8 | 443.5 | 449.4 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 17.9 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 18.7 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 19.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 18.7 | 19.1 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 19.7 | 19.8 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 476.2 | 487.6 | 490.7 | 497.6 | 504.4 | 511.4 | 519.1 | 526.6 | 532.8 | 538.5 | 544.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 470.1 | 486.5 | 492.3 | 499.5 | 505.0 | 510.3 | 516.7 | 523.8 | 530.0 | 535.8 | 542.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 173.6 | 173.3 | 171.1 | 168.7 | 167.7 | 168.4 | 170.3 | 172.7 | 175.2 | 177.7 | 180.0 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 21.4 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 23.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 23.7 | 23.8 | 23.9 | 24.0 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States f.o.b. Gulf Ports (June/May), less EEP payments where applicable. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
No.2 yellow corn, United States f.o.b. Gulf Ports (September/August). | |||||||||||||
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, f.o.b. Bangkok (January/December). | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||