OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012

This is the 18th edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the eighth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations, and input from collaborating member countries. The report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, fish and dairy products over the 2012-2021 period and contains an evaluation of recent developments, and key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. A jointly-developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the projections. This edition includes a special feature on the challenge of increasing agricultural productivity growth in a sustainable manner.

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Publication Date :
11 July 2012
DOI :
10.1787/agr_outlook-2012-en
 
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Author(s):
OECD
Pages :
185–198
DOI :
10.1787/agr_outlook-2012-12-en

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After the dramatic fall in 2009 of international dairy prices, these rebounded in 2010 and significantly strengthened through to the first half of 2011. Sustained imports of milk powder by South East Asia, Mexico and North Africa (mainly Algeria) have been predominantly behind this price firmness. China, in particular, has continued to underpin the global dairy markets as the demand fuelled by a rapidly growing middle class with increased disposable income continued to outstrip the domestic supply, which continues to be confronted with milk safety issues. Global supply response, stimulated by high returns and excellent pasture conditions in Oceania and parts of Latin America, eventually caused prices to decline in the second half of 2011. The production gains were translated into increased exports, confirming the remarkable growth in dairy trade recorded since 2009. Export volumes increased mainly from New Zealand, Argentina, the United States, and the European Union. The decline in international dairy prices are expected to be nowhere near that experienced in 2009 as global markets continue to enjoy strong demand growth in developing countries.

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