OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009

This 15th edition of the Agricultural Outlook edition presents the outlook for commodity markets during the 2009 to 2018 period, and analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities. 

This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.

The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda.  This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.

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Publication Date :
28 July 2009
DOI :
10.1787/agr_outlook-2009-en
 
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Author(s):
OECD
Pages :
167–178
DOI :
10.1787/agr_outlook-2009-11-en

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Unlike cereals, oilseeds and dairy markets, meat prices did not show a spectacular development in 2008. This is partially explained by the relatively limited role meat plays as a staple and the limited storage capacities, that make panic-buying unlikely. High cereals prices translate into high feed costs in production systems where cereals play an important role as feed. However, producers have only limited ability to respond to suddenly increasing feed costs as production decisions are taken in the beginning of the production cycle and cannot respond quickly to price signals. These two factors are probably the most relevant in explaining why meat prices remained rather stable during the recent turbulent period. These high feed prices combined with moderate livestock prices represented a challenge to livestock farmers. The prices for cereals and consequently for feed have decreased significantly since the middle of 2008, easing some of the pressure on livestock farmers.
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