OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

1999-1142 (online)
1563-0447 (print)
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The thirteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2017 report contains a special feature on the prospects for, and challenges facing, Southeast Asia.

Also available in French, Spanish
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2004

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07 July 2004
9789264020092 (PDF) ;9789264020085(print)

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This tenth edition of the OECD Agricultural Outlook analyses how global and domestic forces are shaping agricultural markets to 2013.  It highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the agricultural outlook.  After presenting a broad overview of the situation and setting out the assumptions used, the report  presents detailed projections for production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for OECD countries as well as Argentina, Brazil, China, and Russia. Commodities covered include cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, and dairy.  Two special chapters cover medium term market impacts of the 2003 EU Common Agricultural Policy reform and Indian agricultural policy challenges and market prospects.

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  • Outlook in Brief

    Broad-based income growth in both OECD and Non-member economies, moderate population growth and low inflation lead to higher per capita incomes and consumption gains world-wide. Consumption in the Non-member economies is expected to grow at rates much faster than those of the OECD area, especially for dairy products such as butter, cheese and whole milk powder as well as livestock products. Consumption gains for these products are faster than growth in population providing the potential to reduce malnutrition and hunger. In the mature markets of the OECD area, where ...

  • Overview

    For the first time, this year’s Agricultural Outlook contains projections over a ten-year period to 2013 and includes an expanded European Union of 25 member countries. The Outlook this year occurs against a macroeconomic background that is more optimistic than that of the last two years. Economic growth in most OECD member countries is expected to be higher, led by the resurgent growth in the United States and its NAFTA trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Japan too, is expected to post solid growth numbers in 2003, and a path of moderate growth is expected following years of stagnation, even though this is anticipated to lessen in the medium-term. Growth in the euro zone in 2003 is lagging that of other major OECD ...

  • Economic and Policy Assumptions

    Restrained optimism prevails for a recovery in the world economy as growth momentum takeshold in North America, Asia and the United Kingdom. Continental Europe has begun to rebound, but has shown a more hesitant recovery. Major Non-member economies such as Brazil and China continue to enjoy substantial economic activity and growth, as does Russia in the near term ...

  • Cereals

    World wheat and coarse grain nominal prices are expected to increase to 2005 and thereafter to show little change until 2013, but to continue their long-term decline in real terms. Rice prices to increase both in nominal and real terms over the same period ...

  • Oilseeds

    After a sharp initial drop, oilseed prices are projected to remain flat in nominal terms to 2013, with lower oilseed meal prices, higher vegetable oil prices and with all real prices continuing to decline ...

  • Sugar

    The fundamentals of the world sugar market are expected to remain bearish over the Outlook period, with world raw sugar prices to remain in a band of USD 7-9 cents/lb (USD160-200/t) over the period to 2013/14 ...

  • Meat

    Reflecting import bans put in place since the occurrence of several cases of BSE in North America, the Pacific market price for beef is expected to rise by 33% while the US domestic price will fall by 14% in 2004 ..

  • Dairy

    World dairy product prices firmed considerably in 2003 but are projected to increase only modestly in nominal terms over the Outlook period. OECD countries are expected to contribute about 22% of the projected increase in global milk production of 121 million tonnes; with most of the OECD growth occurring in Oceania ...

  • Medium Term Market Impacts of the 2003 EU Common Agricultural Policy Reform

    The Council of Agricultural Ministers of the European Union (EU) reached agreement, in Luxembourg on 26 June 2003, on a reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), based on the Commission’s proposals presented on 23 January 2003 (CEC, 2003a). It includes adjustments to the common market organisations (CMOs) for crops, beef and dairy products as well as the introduction of a Single Farm Payments largely decoupled from current production decisions. In addition, it covers Rural Development Regulation measures and a "financial discipline" mechanism to keep CAP spending in line with existing budgetary ceilings. While a broader discussion of the CAP Reform decision is ...

  • Indian Agriculture

    India, with the second largest population in the world, potentially represents one of the most important markets for bulk agricultural commodities and agricultural exports. However, in a number of cases, access to this growing market has been constrained by India’s agricultural and trade policies. The overriding policy goal of self-sufficiency in food production based on high domestic production driven largely by domestic subsidies, in the form of price support and large input subsidies, and reinforced by high import tariffs have limited trade opportunities. This policy regime, however, is widely perceived as being neither sustainable nor compatible with the changed circumstances and challenges now facing the Indian agricultural economy ...

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